← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 42% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.96 | fair |
| Chaves win | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 22' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
| 34' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcão · Chaves |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Helton Leite · Chaves |
| 60' | ⚽ | Rochinha · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days | 385.00 | 812.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1522.40 | 1527.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.46 | 0.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |