← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 41% | 49% | 2.39 | value: +17% |
| Portimonense win | 32% | 25% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Toni Borevković · Rio Ave FC |
| 12' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 24' | ⚽ | Dener · Portimonense |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gabrielzinho · Rio Ave FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jonathan Buatu · Rio Ave FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 59' | 🟥 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟥 | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 63.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1553.79 | 1453.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.73 | -21.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |