← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 88% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.08 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 4% | 4% | 25.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 28' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 67' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 458.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1868.51 | 1453.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.89 | -17.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |