← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 39% | 39% | 2.52 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Amir Abedzadeh · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Defendi · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 244.00 | 1281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1431.07 | 1536.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.03 | 4.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.76 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |