← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 42% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| Boavista win | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Accioly · CD Santa Clara |
| 19' | ⚽ | Thiago Santana · CD Santa Clara |
| 21' | 🟨 | André Claro · Boavista |
| 25' | 🟨 | Thiago Santana · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | ⚽ | Federico Falcone · Boavista |
| 50' | ⚽ | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
| 60' | ⚽ | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 65' | ⚽ | Talocha · Boavista |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fernando Andrade · CD Santa Clara |
| 71' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 76' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 85' | 🟨 | Federico Falcone · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 4.20 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1765.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.43 |
| elo | 1497.57 | 1536.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | 26.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.33 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.67 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.67 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.33 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |