← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 41% | 43% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Zakarya Bergdich · Belenenses |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Belenenses |
| 76' | ⚽ | Alhassane Keita · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 57.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1453.54 | 1496.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.68 | 4.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |