← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 41% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.19 | value: +15% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Junio Rocha · Rio Ave FC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · Rio Ave FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sergio Peña · CD Tondela |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jorge Fernandes · CD Tondela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 999.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1475.28 | 1554.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.96 | -3.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |