← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 70% | 78% | 1.39 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 5.01 | fair |
| Aves win | 10% | 8% | 9.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Defendi · Aves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 60' | ⚽ | Wilson Eduardo · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 64' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 64' | ⚽ | João Palhinha · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 78' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 86.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1716.12 | 1434.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.80 | 8.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |