← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Boavista win | 28% | 33% | 3.51 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Falcone · Boavista |
| 53' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 53' | 🟥 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 56' | 🟨 | Raphael Silva · Boavista |
| 60' | ⚽ | Edinho · Feirense |
| 61' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Helton Leite · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 908.00 | 359.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1493.56 | 1535.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.38 | 33.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |