← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 20% | 24% | 4.78 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Patrick · CD Santa Clara |
| 49' | ⚽ | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marco Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 64' | ⚽ | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Wilson Manafá · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 23 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | — |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 24.00 | 1758.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | — |
| elo | 1453.62 | 1497.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.24 | — |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | — |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | — |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |