← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 52% | 48% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
| Chaves win | 20% | 24% | 4.77 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 42' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Danny · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Djavan · Chaves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Barrera · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Gallo · Chaves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leandro Barrera · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 1272.00 | 784.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1527.66 | 1542.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | 23.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.47 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |