← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 31% | 32% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Mohamed Abarhoun · Moreirense FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Moreirense FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Witi · CD Nacional |
| 61' | ⚽ | Heriberto Tavares · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivanildo Fernandes · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 24 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 414.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.30 |
| elo | 1397.54 | 1443.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.01 | -23.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 4.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -1.31 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |