← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 77% | 80% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.88 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 6% | 7% | 15.08 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Diogo Leite · FC Porto |
| 46' | ⚽ | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 54' | 🟨 | Diogo Leite · FC Porto |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Fredy · Belenenses |
| 71' | 🟨 | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alhassane Keita · Belenenses |
| 89' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Henrique Almeida · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonatan Lucca · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| coach days | 505.00 | 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1498.86 | 1884.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.05 | 14.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 0.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.74 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |