← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 40% | 44% | 2.46 | value: +7% |
| Portimonense win | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcão · Chaves |
| 31' | ⚽ | Perdigão · Chaves |
| 42' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · Portimonense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 59' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guilherme Lazaroni · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days | 778.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1533.12 | 1463.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.86 | -22.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |