← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 43% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.27 | value: +4% |
| CD Tondela win | 27% | 28% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Juan Delgado · CD Tondela |
| 13' | ⚽ | Derley · Aves |
| 30' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 39' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 47' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 60' | ⚽ | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 64' | 🟨 | Derley · Aves |
| 74' | ⚽ | Pablo Sabbag · CD Tondela |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 228.00 | 990.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1435.35 | 1474.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.16 | -9.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |