← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Mon, Aug 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Carlos Santos Capela, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Boavista win | 26% | 28% | 3.69 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 21' | 🟨 | Federico Falcone · Boavista |
| 41' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 47' | ⚽ | David Simão · Boavista |
| 51' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Claro · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 27 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days | 12.00 | 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1494.65 | 1541.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.73 | 18.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.97 | 25.45 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |