← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 38% | 22% | 2.59 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 31% | 42% | 3.11 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.14 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 20' | ⚽ | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 32' | 🟨 | Nadjack · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Edinho · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 894.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 4.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1480.08 | 1575.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.17 | 5.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 9.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.63 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 26.25 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |