← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 83% | 84% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.08 | fair |
| Chaves win | 5% | 4% | 19.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 20' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · FC Porto |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Luís Martins · Chaves |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 80' | 🟥 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 88' | ⚽ | Marius Mouandilmadji · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days | 436.00 | 771.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1880.47 | 1536.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.95 | 27.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.50 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.92 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |