← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 43% | 46% | 2.28 | value: +4% |
| Portimonense win | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Pires · Portimonense |
| 37' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 64' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 77' | ⚽ | Pires · Portimonense |
| 79' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | ⚽ | Rúben Micael · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafa Soares · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 681.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1466.75 | 1459.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.80 | -18.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |