← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 33% | 29% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 72' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Seco · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rafik Halliche · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| coach days | 803.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1465.39 | 1448.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.73 | 12.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.78 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |