← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 83% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 8.55 | value: +3% |
| Moreirense FC win | 6% | 4% | 17.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Andrija Živković · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 41' | 🟨 | Luisão · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Peña · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 2 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1077.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 4.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1929.85 | 1465.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.15 | -4.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 78.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 25.80 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |