← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 47% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +4% |
| Belenenses win | 25% | 26% | 3.93 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Kuca · Boavista |
| 27' | 🟨 | Bruno Pereirinha · Belenenses |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bruno Pereirinha · Belenenses |
| 42' | 🟥 | Bruno Pereirinha · Belenenses |
| 54' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 57' | 🟨 | Muriel · Belenenses |
| 68' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 77' | 🟨 | Florent Hanin · Belenenses |
| 81' | 🟨 | Leonardo Ruiz · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 253.00 |
| 406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1516.94 | 1494.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.53 | 2.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |