← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 41% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| Aves win | 32% | 32% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.63 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 19' | 🟨 | Luis Farina · Aves |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 22' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nikola Maraš · Chaves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
| 89' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Fellipe · Aves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| 130.00 |
| 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1457.29 | 1526.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.75 | 15.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |