← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 87% | 92% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
| Feirense win | 4% | 3% | 34.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · Feirense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 72' | 🟨 | Antonio Briseño · Feirense |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Seco · Feirense |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Valencia · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 339.00 |
| 796.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1875.41 | 1466.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.91 | 16.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 82.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |