← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 38% | 47% | 2.54 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 35% | 29% | 2.77 | fair |
| Aves win | 27% | 23% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Alexandre Guedes · Aves |
| 26' | 🟨 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Alexandre Guedes · Aves |
| 48' | ⚽ | Fernando Tissone · Aves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 94.00 |
| 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1470.61 | 1435.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.98 | -17.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.08 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |