← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 47% | 38% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 26% | 35% | 3.70 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Fede Varela · Portimonense |
| 14' | ⚽ | Shoya Nakajima · Portimonense |
| 28' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 39' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 57' | ⚽ | Licá · Belenenses |
| 59' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
| 79' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Maurides · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 399.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1504.05 | 1490.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.44 | -15.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 24.73 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |