← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 77% | 79% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.23 | value: +8% |
| Boavista win | 8% | 4% | 12.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 68' | 🟥 | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mateus · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| coach days |
| 398.00 |
| 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1750.91 | 1509.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.04 | -9.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 74.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |