← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 48% | 38% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.64 | value: +18% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fernando Fonseca · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' | 🟨 | Amilton da Silva · Aves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nildo Petrolina · Aves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Tissone · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 119.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1426.16 | 1449.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.28 | 4.46 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 28.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.77 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |