← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 48% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
| Chaves win | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Rio Ave FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 65' | 🟥 | Perdigão · Chaves |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Yuri Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cássio · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | William · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟥 | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 21 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days |
| 2128.00 |
| 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1551.84 | 1518.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.75 | -20.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |