← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 44% | 40% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 25% | 32% | 3.88 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Gian Martins · Pacos Ferreira |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · Pacos Ferreira |
| 56' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 76' | 🟨 | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 83' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 2 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 240.00 |
| 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1502.67 | 1465.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.07 | 3.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |