← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 88% | 91% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 7% | 11.50 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 3% | 3% | 30.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 30' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 32' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 39' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorge Fernandes · CD Tondela |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luisão · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 69' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| coach days |
| 1062.00 |
| 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1929.97 | 1496.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.20 | 7.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| league points | 77.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.79 | — |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |