← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 39% | 44% | 2.52 | value: +11% |
| Aves win | 31% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Carlos Ponck · CD Tondela |
| 69' | ⚽ | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Aves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tyler Boyd · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days |
| 873.00 |
| 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1483.90 | 1438.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.75 | -21.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.00 | -2.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |