← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 42% | 2.53 | value: +6% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 32% | 24% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.36 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Arsénio Nunes · Moreirense FC |
| 19' | ⚽ | Bilel Aouacheria · Moreirense FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marcão · Rio Ave FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ronaldo Peña · Moreirense FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nuno Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rafael Costa · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Ramires · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 14 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 80.00 |
| 2121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.62 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1466.17 | 1562.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.78 | -12.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 29.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |