← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 67' | ⚽ | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 76' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafa Soares · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days |
| 660.00 |
| 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1511.26 | 1485.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.35 | 6.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| league points | 38.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |