← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 46% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 25% | 24% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Luiz Phellype · Pacos Ferreira |
| 46' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rúben Micael · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| coach days |
| 202.00 |
| 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1466.43 | 1490.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.62 | 14.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |