← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 54% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 19% | 17% | 4.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Tomané · CD Tondela |
| 66' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 86' | 🟨 | Yuri Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | David Bruno · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuno Santos · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 28 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| coach days | 2115.00 | 867.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1584.67 | 1496.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.66 | 8.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 43.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | -2.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 26.63 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |