← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 45% | 37% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 39% | 4.15 | value: +60% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Alfa Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pablo Santos · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days | 1141.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 4.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1544.61 | 1462.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.66 | 19.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |