← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 36% | 45% | 2.71 | value: +22% |
| FC Porto win | 34% | 26% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 59' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alejandro Grimaldo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Héctor Herrera · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1049.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1961.70 | 1874.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.57 | -34.06 |
| eye test v1 | 1.57 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 74.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 27.72 |
| state index | 2.17 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |