← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 46% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 27% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Rafik Halliche · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Renan Ribeiro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟥 | Victor Andrade · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Fonseca · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days |
| 652.00 |
| 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1498.80 | 1437.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.23 | -25.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |