← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 41% | 41% | 2.36 | fair |
| Chaves win | 30% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Davidson · Chaves |
| 15' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 25' | ⚽ | Carraça · Boavista |
| 28' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Chaves |
| 42' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 54' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stephane Sparagna · Boavista |
| 68' | 🟨 | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 77' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 80' | ⚽ | Stephen Eustáquio · Chaves |
| 88' | ⚽ | Higor Platiny · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| coach days |
| 225.00 |
| 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1506.29 | 1509.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.17 | -50.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 37.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |