← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 52% | 57% | 1.89 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Feirense win | 21% | 21% | 4.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mama Baldé · Aves |
| 14' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alexandre Guedes · Aves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do CD das Aves |
| coach days | 103.00 | 774.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1422.44 | 1462.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.97 | 6.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.14 | 27.27 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |