← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Boavista win | 24% | 27% | 4.07 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Boavista |
| 17' | 🟨 | Raphael Rossi-Branco · Boavista |
| 44' | 🟨 | David Simão · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iago Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Neto · Moreirense FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| coach days |
| 67.00 |
| 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.72 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1452.17 | 1516.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.38 | -5.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.71 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |