← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 90% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 6% | 10.10 | fair |
| Aves win | 4% | 4% | 25.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 11' | ⚽ | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 47' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Aves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Braga · Aves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 311.00 |
| 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1853.76 | 1431.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.40 | -5.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 70.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |