← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 24% | 27% | 4.11 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Davidson · Chaves |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 62' | ⚽ | Fredy · Belenenses |
| 66' | ⚽ | William · Chaves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Diogo Viana · Belenenses |
| 75' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Sasso · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| coach days |
| 646.00 |
| 372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1511.90 | 1492.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.61 | 27.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 36.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |