← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 36% | 33% | 2.69 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 34% | 37% | 2.84 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 24' | ⚽ | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 38' | ⚽ | Tyler Boyd · CD Tondela |
| 54' | ⚽ | Wellington Carvalho · Portimonense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pedro Sá · Portimonense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 25 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 858.00 | 645.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.34 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1481.15 | 1497.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.43 | -4.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| league points | 30.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.19 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.64 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |