← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 43% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.37 | value: +8% |
| Maritimo win | 28% | 20% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 29' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Evangelista · GD Estoril Praia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Fernando Fonseca · GD Estoril Praia |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ricardo Valente · Maritimo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean Cleber · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days |
| 157.00 |
| 1133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1436.09 | 1546.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.85 | 38.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 22.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |