← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 82% | 1.30 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 5.60 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 8% | 7% | 13.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nathan · Belenenses |
| 45' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 70' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 74' | 🟨 | André Moreira · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days | 366.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1482.61 | 1899.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.86 | -0.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 29.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.33 | 27.74 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |