← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 46% | 41% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.23 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 24% | 34% | 4.06 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Portimonense |
| 34' | 🟨 | Zizo · Moreirense FC |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Bilel Aouacheria · Moreirense FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tozé · Moreirense FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Pires · Portimonense |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rúben Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zizo · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ousmane Drame · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Boubacar Fofana · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Zizo · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Pires · Portimonense |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Pires · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| coach days |
| 638.00 |
| 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1490.10 | 1459.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.10 | 6.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |