← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.85 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 23% | 28% | 4.18 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Francisco Geraldes · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Victor Andrade · GD Estoril Praia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Rafik Halliche · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mano · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 2098.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1594.02 | 1461.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.39 | -31.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| league points | 40.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 26.37 |
| state index | -0.13 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |