← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 58% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
| Feirense win | 15% | 19% | 6.60 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ruben Ferreira · Maritimo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Maritimo |
| 66' | ⚽ | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 70' | 🟨 | Diga · Feirense |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jean Cleber · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Seco · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| coach days |
| 1125.00 |
| 759.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1535.46 | 1450.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.92 | -12.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |